Dollar idles after tumble from 19-month peak; Aussie firm before RBA

TOKYO - The US dollar nursed its wounds on Tuesday following its biggest drop in nearly three weeks against major peers, as Federal Reserve policymakers allayed investor fears of a very rapid tightening of monetary policy.

The Australian dollar remained firm after its biggest jump in eight months overnight ahead of a Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision later on Tuesday, with expectation building that Governor Philip Lowe will capitulate on his prior conviction that an interest rate rise this year was unlikely.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six rivals, ticked 0.05 percent higher to 96.715, barely making a dent in Monday's 0.59 percent tumble. It was at an almost 19-month high of 97.441 at the end of last week, as investors pondered chances the Fed could raise rates by 50 basis points in March.

Trading in Asian hours may be subdued with several markets on holiday for the Lunar New Year.

A chorus of Fed officials on Monday backed a lift-off in rates in March, but spoke cautiously about what might follow.

Money markets price in a quarter-point rise for March, and four more by year-end.

"Recent Fed remarks appeared to push back on the odds of a 50bp rate hike in March," putting the focus on economic data this week for clues on the pace of policy tightening, including the closely watched monthly payrolls report on Friday, TD Securities strategists wrote in a note.

US payrolls are forecast to show a gain of 153,000 jobs for January, down from 199,000 in December, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.9 percent, according to a Reuters poll.

Meanwhile, the Aussie was little changed at $0.7067 after soaring 1.06 percent on Monday, its biggest gain since early June.

Australian inflation is surging at the fastest annual pace since 2014, suggesting price pressures are not as benign and transitory as policymakers thought they would be.

"It is impractical and unlikely the RBA can continue to hold a dovish stance," the TD Securities strategists wrote, predicting a hike in August or earlier.

A Reuters poll of economists puts the odds of a first hike in November.

The Bank of England holds its policy meeting on Thursday, with a Reuters poll predicting a second rate hike in less than two months after UK inflation jumped to its highest in nearly 30 years.

The European Central Bank also meets on Thursday. While no policy change is expected, analysts said the Fed's looming rate hikes will narrow the ECB's window for action.

The euro slipped 0.11 percent to $1.12235, following a 0.80 percent jump on Monday.

Sterling was flat at $1.34385 after gaining 0.33 percent in the previous session.

The greenback was little changed at 115.125 yen.

(Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

-reuters

US Fed raises key rate to 1.0-1.25%, signals one more hike in 2017

WASHINGTON, United States — The US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 1.0-1.25 percent on Wednesday and signaled another increase remains likely this year, despite the recent spate of weak economic data.

In explaining this second rate hike of 2017 and plans for more increases in the coming months, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the move reflected the progress in the world’s largest economy, which continues to add jobs at a solid pace.

“The economy is doing well, is showing resilience,” Yellen said in her quarterly press conference.

“We have a very strong labor market, an unemployment rate that’s declined to levels we have not seen since 2001. And even with some moderation in the pace of job growth, we have a labor market that continues to strengthen.”

And despite recent tepid price pressures, the Fed expects inflation to pick up — eventually, citing “one-off reductions” in certain categories such as cell phone services and prescription drugs as the reason for the recent lower readings.

Those factors mean the Fed’s preferred inflation measure will remain below the two percent target for some time, but will gradually rise to the target level over “the medium term.”

But coming on a day when the consumer price index and retail sales fell, in large part due to falling food and gasoline prices, but with widespread declines in other categories, some economists are saying the Fed is no longer basing its decision on the data, as it has repeatedly said.

“The third rate hike in seven months, coming not long after a relatively poor Q1 GDP print, suggests the Fed has become less data-dependent in its monetary policy decisions,” Fitch Ratings Chief Economist Brian Coulton said.

One FOMC member, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari, dissented from the decision, preferring to keep policy on hold for now.
Third hike coming?

Analysts in recent weeks have become increasingly doubtful there would be a third rate increase later this year, as inflation, consumption and other economic data have indicated the weakness seen in the first quarter has continued.

Fed futures markets now put the chances for another rate increase this year to below 50 percent.

Chris Low of FTN Financial said the Fed “compromised” by continuing the rate increases despite falling inflation, but “the market expects the Fed to take a break.”

However, Yellen said business and household confidence remain quite strong, and echoed the statement from the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which repeated its confidence that the economy will continue to expand “at a moderate pace” even with further gradual rate increases.

Asked about the criticism, Yellen said, “I don’t think …the Fed’s credibility has been impaired.”

She once again said the path of interest rates “is not a pre-set course,” but the Fed’s quarterly projections show they still anticipate making a third rate increase this year, with the median federal funds rate ending 2017 at 1.4 percent.

That would be followed by three rate increases in 2018 and three more in 2019, with the key rate at 2.9 percent by the end of that period.
Forecasts

In their quarterly projections, Fed officials saw the economy growing slightly faster than previously forecast, with GDP up 2.2 percent this year, a tenth of a percentage point higher than forecast in March.

But the estimate for the central bank’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE price index, was cut three-tenths to 1.6 percent, while the core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was cut two-tenths to 1.7 percent, according to the Summary of Economic Projections.

The Fed now sees the unemployment rate ending the year at 4.3 percent, where it sits currently, rather than the 4.5 percent previously expected.

The central bank also confirmed that it will begin later this year to implement a plan to reduce the size of its investment holdings, which were built up to record levels during the financial crisis to help support the economy, especially once interest rates reached zero.

As long as the economy “evolves broadly as expected,” the plan “would gradually reduce the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings,” the FOMC statement said. CBB

source: business.inquirer.net

How Mortgage Rates Are Determined in Canada

For many Canadians, their home is the biggest investment they will ever make, and their mortgage the most significant loan. When shopping for a mortgage, people generally look for ways to get low mortgage rates.

A mortgage rate doesn’t refer to the size of the mortgage loan, but rather the interest rate on your mortgage. Obviously before you buy, you’ll want to search for a low mortgage rate. There are many factors that affect mortgage rates in Canada, and a fuller understanding of these factors can be an immense help to the inexperienced buyer when applying for a mortgage.

In this article, we’ll look at a basic outline of how mortgage rates are determined in Canada, including some ways to get a low mortgage rate.

Fixed vs. Variable Rate Mortgages

There are two kinds of mortgage loans available to Canadians: fixed or variable rate mortgages. A fixed rate mortgage, as the name suggests, keeps the same interest rate and monthly payment for the duration of the term. A fixed rate mortgage is ideal for those who want more stable financial planning, and want to avoid any surprises due to sudden inflation.

A variable rate mortgage adjusts based on the lender’s prime rate, which is determined by the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate. This means the interest rates can change day to day. While obviously there is some risk involved with a variable rate mortgage, they can often save Canadian homeowners money. While the monthly payment remains the same, lower interest rates mean that more of your monthly payment goes towards your principal. While some homeowners fear sudden increases in mortgage rates, banks generally avoid this so as not to incur any backlash.


The Mortgage Market

Mortgage rates are set based on a number of factors. These factors, or steps, are referred to as the secondary mortgage market. When you are granted a mortgage loan, the following steps occur:

• Your mortgage is sold by the bank/lender to a third party investor, known as the aggregator.
  
• Your loan is combined with other loans by the aggregator to form a mortgage-backed security.
  
• The mortgage backed security is divided into shares, which are sold to other investors.
  
  

Therefore, your mortgage rates are based on what the aggregator will pay for the mortgage, but also by the worth of the mortgage-backed security and what investors are willing to pay. This creates a competitive mortgage market, with homeowners benefitting from low mortgage rates and investors benefitting from higher mortgage rates.

It can be complicated to understand everything that goes into determining mortgage rates in Canada. The best way to understand mortgage rates is to consult with one of our mortgage professionals. They understand the market thoroughly and will be able to explain how everything works, and help you find a low mortgage rate! Contact us today to schedule a consultation.

source: northwoodmortgage.com

Six Tips For Choosing The Best Mortgage Broker

If you are currently looking for a mortgage and have decided to enlist the help of a mortgage broker, then you’ve made a smart move. The next step is ensuring that you find the best mortgage broker. How do you do this? Gather as much information as possible and ask important questions. Here are some key things you should know about the broker, as well as the ways in which you can find this information.



    Judge by Experience

    The mortgage brokerage industry does have a fairly high turnover rate, so it is important to know how long the broker has been in business. This helps to determine if the mortgage broker is a seasoned professional who has been through hard and good times, as opposed to a newbie who has just come in.

    Ask About Mode of Compensation

    Brokers are generally compensated in two ways: fees and yield spread premiums. Fees are a percentage of the loan amount, while yield spread premiums are direct compensation for signing the borrower up for a higher interest rate than what they would have otherwise opted for. While the latter may be a bit controversial, they are actually suitable for borrowers who cannot afford the upfront costs associated with the loan. If you can’t pay upfront, then you pay over time. Ask the broker about yield spread premiums before signing anything.

    Ask About Rate Locks

    Rate locks are a way for some brokers to speculate on the rise and fall of interest rates—often at the borrower’s expense. Ask the broker about rate locks and how they handle them. However, to prevent the broker from doing any kind of speculation, it is best to get something in writing.

    Ask for References

    Ask your broker for references. If he/she has satisfied clients, then it’s best to ask them directly, and they will give you honest answers.

    Surf the Internet

    Do some background checking on the mortgage brokers. See what their credentials are and whether they are licensed and listed. There should be an online directory for registered brokers.

    Interview At Least Three Brokers

    You should have a shortlist of at least three mortgage brokers before deciding on the best one. Compare them and see which one you feel most comfortable with.

Deciding on a mortgage broker can be a detailed process, but making the effort could save you thousands or tens of thousands of dollars in the long run. If you are in search of a mortgage broker, then contact us today. Our specialists can help you find the best mortgage for you, and we will be more than happy to answer all your questions.

source:  northwoodmortgage.com