Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts

Wednesday

Dollar nurses losses as euro rallies, commodity currencies surge


SYDNEY/TOKYO  – The dollar nursed broad losses on Wednesday, having suffered its biggest one-day fall in over a year as it came under pressure from many fronts amid oil-fueled gains by commodity currencies.

Buyers snapped up commodity currencies as the oil market extended its recovery and copper prices also surged.

Elsewhere in the market, the euro recovered on hopes that Greece may yet secure a new debt deal.

The euro's rally from Tuesday's low of $1.1312 went as far as $1.1534. It last traded at $1.1470, well off an 11-year trough of $1.1098 set last week.

That contributed to a 0.9 percent slide in the dollar index, its biggest one-day fall since October, 2013. The index last traded at 93.758 after stooping to 93.25 overnight.

In a development that supported the battered euro, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras sought to reassure international partners that Athens did not want to create divisions in Europe with its call for a new debt accord and said he was open to listening to alternative proposals.

Yet, there was still plenty of uncertainty whether Tsipras will be successful, suggesting the rally in the euro was more about positioning rather than any change in fundamentals, traders said.

Commodity currencies remained in the spotlight with crude oil up about 19 percent over the past four sessions, while copper saw its biggest one-day gain since July 2013. Oil's recovery helped spur a global rally in risk assets.

"It feels a little strange seeing crude oil and equities move in tandem, as higher oil under normal circumstances would slow economic growth. But we just have to go with the flow, and brace for 'risk on' when oil goes up," said Bart Wakabayashi, head of forex at State Street in Tokyo.

"Currencies appear to be at the whim of the oil market. For now oil has become an indicator of risk appetite," he said.

The Australian dollar hovered around 78 US cents, staging an impressive turnaround from a slump to a six year trough of $0.7627.

The short-covering rally followed the Aussie's slump on Tuesday, when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates to a record low 2.25 percent.

The Canadian dollar jumped for a second session to two-week highs of C$1.2353 per US dollar. It last traded at C$1.2428.

Sterling climbed to $1.5198, pulling further away from a near 19-month low of $1.4952 set last month. The British currency had posted its best session in nearly 10 months on Tuesday.

Against the yen, the dollar fared better as US Treasury yields jumped and a rally by Tokyo shares lessened the allure of the safe-haven Japanese currency. The greenback was rose 0.3 percent to 117.95, having recovered from a low of 116.87.

Traders said the dollar's recent rally to multi-year highs against the yen and euro could falter as doubts emerge over whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

"When most central banks across developed and emerging economies are in easing mode, the assumption that the Federal Reserve will raise rates this year is starting to look questionable," said David Absolon, Investment Director at Heartwood Investment Management.

"For Fed policymakers, the external environment and the actions of other central banks are becoming increasingly hard to ignore," he wrote in a note to clients. – Reuters

Sunday

Bitcoin is latest victim of disinflation

 
Bitcoin is proving a big disappointment. The would-be currency is down 33 percent against the dollar so far in 2015, and 71 percent in the last year. There’s almost certainly more bad news to come.
 
The electronic token has lots of enduring problems. As a store of value that is not subject to government intervention, it lacks the support of authorities and is always in danger of being banned.
 
The market was illiquid to begin with and is becoming even more so, increasing the risk of abuse. Bitcoins generate no income, so they count as collectibles – more like an artwork than a few shares of Google. In these matters, beauty and value depend on the fickle eyes of the beholder and potential buyer.
 
Anonymity and free transactions offer some allure. But the former leads to an association with illegal activity. The latter is an illusion, since someone has to pay for the computers used to process and store bitcoin information. Bitcoin “miners” provide the service in exchange for new bitcoins.
 
Bitcoin psychology
 
Right now, the biggest problem is psychology. In a more ebullient and inflationary world, the novelty and limited supply of bitcoins might appeal. These days, disinflation and discontent are the dominant themes.
 
Bitcoins touched $171.41 on Jan. 14 and on Jan. 16 traded at $216. At these levels, the economics of bitcoin mining look terrible. Full cost of production is closer to $600 per token, based on a recent study by Australian researcher Hass McCook. If miners retreat, users may end up paying directly for the service.
 
Defenders of bitcoin have not given up hope. Their emphasis has shifted though, from the currency to the underlying blockchain processing software. That may be a good investment. It may even be revolutionary. But it will not bring up the price of bitcoin. The currency is suffering an erosion of confidence from which it could be hard to recover.– Reuters

Saturday

Singapore economy shrinks but avoids recession

SINGAPORE - Singapore's economy shrank by 1.5 percent in the third quarter but avoided a technical recession after growth in the previous three months was adjusted, government figures showed Friday.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry said the export-driven city-state was still on track to achieve annual growth of 1.5-2.5 percent in 2012.

"Economic growth in the second quarter was better than expected, resulting in an upward revision of quarter-on-quarter annualised growth from the preliminary estimates of -0.7 per cent to 0.2 per cent," it said.

"The revision was due to new data from the construction sector, which registered higher certified progress payments from private sector industrial and residential projects," it added.

Two successive quarters of negative growth are regarded as a technical recession. Singapore is seen as a bellwether for Asia's leading economies because of its sensitivity to world trade.

source: interaksyon.com