‘Black Friday’ becoming a shadow of its former self in US

The U.S. holiday shopping season officially opened with a deluge of “Black Friday” promotions but the frenzied crowds of the past have thinned out with the rise of e-commerce.

Companies in the retail, entertainment and tourism industries once again tried to entice shoppers after Thanksgiving with a bevy of offers on a day synonymous with American consumer culture and notorious “doorbuster” sales that start at the crack of dawn.


But U.S. consumers aren’t buying Black Friday the way they once did.

Only 36% of U.S. consumers plan to shop this year on Black Friday, down one percent from last year and a decline of 23% from 2015, according to a PricewaterhouseCoopers survey.

“Just a few years ago, Black Friday had the aura of a FOMO (fear of missing out) event,” PWC said. “Now it seems more symbolic than significant in the pantheon of retail holidays.”

Black Friday will be followed in three days by “Cyber Monday,” a second highpoint of spending early in the season.

Friday’s sales have prompted copycat versions throughout Europe, an effort that has generated no small amount of friction.

This year’s events prompted protest in parts of France, Germany and the Netherlands that included environmentalist rallies outside Amazon distribution centers and human chains blocking malls.

There has been little sign of that sort of subversiveness in the United States. Rather, the bigger emerging challenge for Black Friday has been shifting consumer patterns.

The PWC survey said that for the first time in 2019 more consumers (54%) said they’ll do more of their shopping online than in stores.


Higher sales expected

Economists and retail industry insiders are broadly confident about the outlook for the 2019 season, owing to a strong labor market.

Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of US economic growth and has stayed strong throughout 2019 even as manufacturing has stagnated and business investment has been lackluster.

“Consumers are in good financial shape and willing to spend a little more on gifts for the special people in their lives this holiday season,” said Matthew Shay, Chief Executive of the National Retail Federation.

The NRF has projected that US consumers will spend an average of $1,048 this year, up about 4% they said they would spend last year.

But increasingly more of those sales are migrating online.

This trend includes Amazon of course, but also traditional brick-and-mortar chains like Walmart and Macy’s that have evolved into “multichannel” retailers, as well as companies and organizations hawking everything from pet food to hotel stays to political merchandise.

President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” merchandise was being once again discounted on the U.S. president’s political website at 35% off.

Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts was offering 25% off merchandise orders of $75 or more.

Due to the lateness of Thanksgiving, this year’s holiday shopping season is about six days shorter than last year, prompting more retailers to push up promotions even earlier in the season than usual, according to analysts.

Online consumer spending on Thanksgiving day came in this year at $4.2 billion, up 14.5% from a year ago and the first time above $4 billion, according to Adobe Analytics.


Jason Woosley, a vice president with Adobe, said preliminary data showed Black Friday was also on track to top its performance from last year by almost 19%, with promotions for sporting goods and appliances especially popular.

The data suggested the Thanksgiving day shopping spree hasn’t “stolen any traffic from Black Friday,” he said, adding that about 20% of the overall online sales for the season are expected between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday. NVG

source: business.inquirer.net

Stocks down slightly after 5-day winning streak

NEW YORK — Stocks are falling slightly in morning trading Friday as the market breaks a five-day winning streak that sent major indexes to fresh highs. Bond yields climbed. Technology and consumer discretionary stocks are dropping the most.

KEEPING SCORE: The Dow Jones industrial average fell 2 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 18,504 at 11:32 a.m. Eastern time. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost 3 points, or 0.2 percent, to 2,161. The Nasdaq composite fell 6 points, or 0.1 percent, to 5,028.

THE QUOTE: After the recent gains, “you have to be concerned. Are we going to see more slowing of the global economy?” said Bill Stone, chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management. “What is going to be the real impact of Brexit?”

SUPPLEMENT SURGE: Herbalife rose $9.21, or nearly 16 percent, to $68.57 after The Federal Trade Commission decided not to classify the nutritional supplements company as a pyramid scheme, as was alleged by investor Bill Ackman. The company did agreed, however, to pay $200 million to resolve allegations that it deceived consumers.

BANK BLUES: Wells Fargo fell $1.21, or 2.5 percent, to $47.73 after the consumer banking giant reported that second-quarter earnings fell.

INFLATION CHECK: The Labor Department reported consumer prices rose a modest 1 percent in June from a year ago, well below the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation target. The Fed, which meets July 26-27, wants to see evidence that inflation is ticking up before raising interest rates.

SHOPPING MORE: The Commerce Department reported that U.S. retail sales rose a robust 2.7 percent in June from a year earlier. Consumer spending accounts for about two-third of economic output in the U.S., much higher than in many other developed countries.

ATTACK IN FRANCE: Trading was subdued in Europe after a man drove a truck into crowds celebrating Bastille Day along the beachfront of Nice, killing at least 84 people.

EUROPE SLIPS: France’s CAC-40 was down 0.6 percent while Germany’s DAX fell 0.2 percent. Britain’s FTSE 100 was flat.

TRAVEL SLUMP: Travel-related stocks fell in the wake of the attack. Cruise operator Royal Caribbean fell $1.26, or 1.8 percent, to $70.63 and Delta Air Lines fell 97 cents, or 2.4 percent, to $40.01.

CHINA GROWTH: The Chinese government says its economy expanded at a steady 6.7 percent in the April-June period as spending on construction by state-owned companies in the world’s second-largest economy helped compensate for weak private sector demand.

ASIA’S DAY: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.7 percent. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong climbed 0.5 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.4 percent.

BONDS AND CURRENCIES: Bond prices fell. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.59 percent from 1.54 percent. The euro fell to $1.1076 from $1.1123 and the dollar rose to 105.93 yen from 105.43 yen.

ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude rose 38 cents to $46.06 a barrel in New York, while Brent crude, a standard for international oil prices, rose 44 cents to $47.81 a barrel in London. TVJ

source: business.inquirer.net

US economy: Consumer spending bolsters second-quarter growth

WASHINGTON -  U.S. economic growth accelerated in the second quarter as solid consumer spending offset the drag from weak business spending on equipment, suggesting a steady momentum that could bring the Federal Reserve closer to hiking interest rates this year.

Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.3 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. First-quarter GDP, previously reported to have shrunk at a 0.2 percent pace, was revised up to show it rising at a 0.6 percent rate.

The revision to first-quarter growth reflected steps taken by the government to refine the seasonal adjustment for some components of GDP, which economists said left residual seasonality in the data, as well as new source data.

The Fed on Wednesday described the economy as expanding "moderately" while upgrading its view of the labor market and saying housing had shown "additional" improvement. The Fed's assessment left the door open for a possible hike in interest rates in September, which would be the first rise since 2006.

A separate report showed first-time applications for state unemployment benefits increased 12,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 267,000. However, claims remained not too far from their cycle lows.

The dollar extended gains against a basket of currencies, while prices for U.S. Treasury debt fell slightly.

Though second-quarter GDP growth was a bit below economists' expectations for a 2.6 percent rate, the growth composition pointed to firming domestic fundamentals.

A measure of private domestic demand, which excludes trade, inventories and government expenditures, increased at a 2.5 percent rate after rising at a 2.0 percent pace at the start of the year.

Growth in the second quarter was boosted by consumer spending as households used some of the windfall from cheaper gasoline in late 2014 and early this year to go shopping. The strengthening labor market also encouraged consumers to loosen their purse strings.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew at a 2.9 percent rate from a downwardly revised 1.8 percent pace in the first quarter. Consumer spending was previously reported to have increased at a 2.1 percent rate at the start of the year.

The saving rate fell to 4.8 percent from 5.2 percent.

ENERGY DRAG PERSISTS

Housing also supported the economy in the second quarter, as did exports, and state and local government spending.

However, the energy sector continued to weigh on growth as it struggles with the lingering effects of deep spending cuts by oil-field companies like Schlumberger (SLB.N) and Halliburton (HAL.N) in the aftermath of a more than 60 percent plunge in crude oil prices last year.

Business spending on structures fell at a 1.6 percent rate after stumbling 7.4 percent at the start of the year. Investment on equipment fell at a 4.1 percent rate.

Spending on mining exploration, wells and shafts plunged at a 68.2 percent rate, the largest decline since the second quarter of 1986. This category dropped at a 44.5 percent pace in the first quarter.

But there are signs that the energy spending rout might be nearing an end. Data last Friday showed U.S. energy firms added 21 oil rigs last week, marking the third increase over the past 33 weeks.

Schlumberger said last week it believed the North American rig count may be bottoming and that a slow rise in both land drilling and completion activity could occur in the second half of the year.

Exports rebounded in the second quarter, despite a strong dollar, while imports rose moderately. That left a smaller trade deficit that added 0.13 percentage point to GDP growth.

Inventory investment slowed after the first quarter's brisk pace. Businesses accumulated $110.0 billion worth of merchandise, down from $112.8 billion in the first quarter, good news for the remainder of the year.

With oil prices rising during the second quarter and consumer spending picking up, inflation accelerated sharply.

The personal consumption expenditures price index rebounded at a 2.2 percent rate, the fastest since the first quarter of 2012, after falling at a 1.9 percent rate at the start of the year. Excluding food and energy, prices increased at a 1.8 percent pace.  — Reuters