Study shows how quickly coronavirus spreads at home

The novel coronavirus is twice as infectious within households than similar diseases such as SARS, with a substantial number of additional infections spreading before a COVID-19 sufferer shows any symptoms, according to modelling released Thursday.

Researchers based in China and the United States said their findings could have profound impacts on reducing the number of new infections as the pandemic progresses.

Using data on 350 COVID-19 patients and nearly 2,000 of their close contacts in the city of Guangzhou, China, the researchers estimated the virus’ “secondary attack rate” — that is, the probability that an infected person transmits the disease to someone else.

They found that while the average patient had just a 2.4% chance of infecting someone they did not live with, that figure jumped to 17.1% — around one in six — among cohabitants.



According to their models, which rely on data collated in January and February but have been updated to reflect the latest developments, the likelihood of household infection was highest among over-60s, and lowest among under-20s.

The overall chances of infecting a family member or live-in partner with COVID-19 are twice as high as with SARS, and three times higher than MERS, another coronavirus, they found.


Significantly, the researchers found that the probability of a COVID-19 carrier infecting a family member or flatmate was significantly higher — 39% — before they started showing symptoms than afterward.


This suggests that the virus is easily transmissible within its incubation period and may be passed on by individuals who don’t know they are infected.

The team said that isolation within households cut the total number of COVID-19 cases among the study cohort by 20% to 50% compared with no quarantine.

“Although the effect of case isolation seems moderate, the high infectivity of the virus during the incubation period suggests quarantine of asymptomatic contacts could have prevented more onward transmissions,” said Qin-Long Jing from the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

Many European nations, before implementing weeks-long lockdowns, issued public health advice only to stay at home if an individual was sick — that is, showing symptoms typical to the virus.

The research suggests that may have already been too late to prevent COVID-19 circulating widely.

Writing in a linked comment, Virginia Pitzer from the Yale School of Public Health said that a “key difference” between COVID-19 and other coronaviruses was its “substantially higher” probability of transmission in its incubation period.

She said the research, published in The Lancet, “confirms the relative importance of pre-symptomatic transmission and the relationship between older age and susceptibility, key insights which should inform design of intervention strategies.”

Agence France-Presse

The coronavirus cancels Oktoberfest in Germany

BERLIN — This year’s Oktoberfest in Munich has been called off because of the coronavirus pandemic.

The cancellation of the world-famous annual celebration of beer, which was supposed to run from September 19 to October 4, underlines expectations that the way back to normal life will be very long.

The Oktoberfest typically draws about 6 million visitors every year to the packed festival grounds in Bavaria’s capital.

Bavarian governor Markus Soeder said after meeting Munich’s mayor Tuesday: “We agreed that the risk is simply too high.” He added that “you can neither keep your distance nor work with facial protection” at the Oktoberfest.

Soeder noted that the festival attracts visitors from around the world, raising concerns about bringing new infections to Bavaria.

Mayor Dieter Reiter said that “it is an emotionally difficult moment and of course it is also an economically difficult moment for our city.”

As it stands, major events with large audiences are banned in Germany until at least the end of August.

The country has taken the first steps toward loosening its shutdown, allowing small nonessential shops to start opening this week, but it remains unclear when bars and restaurants will be able to welcome customers again.

The Oktoberfest has previously been canceled during the two world wars; at a time of hyperinflation in Germany in 1923; and because of cholera outbreaks in 1854 and 1873, German news agency dpa reported.

Associated Press

Amazon increases paid sick leave due to coronavirus

Amazon on Wednesday beefed up paid leave for workers quarantined due to the novel coronavirus or diagnosed with the COVID-19 illness.

The company also announced the creation of an Amazon Relief Fund — starting at $25 million — to serve as a pool of grant money for independent delivery drivers, seasonal employees and others losing paychecks due to the pandemic, according to the global internet retailer.


“Effective immediately, all Amazon employees diagnosed with COVID-19 or placed into quarantine will receive up to two weeks of pay,” the firm said in an online post.

“This additional pay while away from work is to ensure employees have the time they need to return to good health without the worry of lost pay.”

Amazon is already providing unlimited unpaid time off for all hourly employees through the end of this month.

The firm is based in Seattle, Washington, the state which has emerged as the United States epicenter of the virus with 24 deaths there so far.

Amazon partners and seasonal workers will be able to apply for relief fund grants to cover two-weeks’ pay “if diagnosed with COVID-19 or placed into quarantine by the government or Amazon,” according to the company.

“Additionally, this fund will support our employees and contractors around the world who face financial hardships from other qualifying events, such as a natural disaster, federally declared emergency, or unforeseen personal hardship.

Amazon has almost 800,000 full-time employees worldwide.

The company confirmed last week that one of its Seattle employees had been quarantined after testing positive for the new coronavirus.

Agence France-Presse

Nearly 20 trapped after China hotel used for coronavirus quarantine collapses

BEIJING, China — Rescuers are searching for 19 people who remain trapped in rubble following the collapse of a hotel used as a coronavirus quarantine facility in eastern China on Saturday, state media reported.

A total of 48 people have been rescued out of the 67 initially trapped when the building first crumbled, state broadcaster CCTV said Sunday.

Footage circulating on Twitter-like Weibo showed rescue workers combing through the rubble of the 80-room Xinjia hotel in coastal Quanzhou city in the dark as they reassured a woman trapped under heavy debris and carried wounded victims into ambulances.


Other footage published by local media, purportedly from security cameras across the street, showed the entire hotel collapsing in seconds.

A total of 43 people have so far been rescued from the wreckage, state news agency Xinhua said.

The hotel's facade appeared to have crumbled into the ground, exposing the building's steel frame, and a crowd gathered as the evening wore on.

Officials have yet to confirm whether anyone died in the accident.

China's Ministry of Emergency Management said some 200 local and 800 Fujian Province firefighters had been deployed to the scene along with 11 search and rescue teams and seven rescue dogs, according to Xinhua.

Quanzhou authorities said ambulances, excavators and cranes had also been rushed to the site.

Representatives from Beijing are also en route to Quanzhou to assist in relief efforts, Xinhua reported.

Quanzhou has recorded 47 cases of the COVID-19 infection and the hotel, which opened two years ago, was repurposed to house people who had been in recent contact with confirmed patients, the People's Daily state newspaper reported.

China is no stranger to building collapses and deadly construction accidents that are typically blamed on the country's rapid growth leading to corner-cutting by builders and the widespread flouting of safety rules.

At least 20 people died in 2016 when a series of crudely-constructed multi-storey buildings packed with migrant workers collapsed in the eastern city of Wenzhou.

Another 10 were killed last year in Shanghai after the collapse of a commercial building during renovations.

Agence France-Presse

Coronavirus time bomb: America's uninsured and brutal work culture

WASHINGTON, United States — Like many Americans, bartender Danjale Williams is worried about the growing threat of the novel coronavirus.

What makes the 22-year-old in Washington even more frightened: The thought of medical bills she just can't afford, as one of almost 27.5 million people in the United States who don't have health insurance.


"I definitely would second guess before going to the doctor, because the doctor's bill is crazy," she said. "If it did come down to that, I don't have enough savings to keep me healthy."

As the virus begins spreading in the west of the country, where the first death was reported Saturday, public health experts warned the US has several characteristics unique among wealthy nations that make it vulnerable.

These include a large and growing population without medical insurance, the 11 million or so undocumented migrants afraid to come into contact with authorities, and a culture of "powering through" when sick for fear of losing one's job.



"These are all things that can perpetuate the spread of a virus," said Brandon Brown, an epidemiologist at UC Riverside.

The number of Americans without health insurance began falling from a high of 46.7 million in 2010 following the passage of Obamacare (the Affordable Care Act), but has risen again over the past two years.

The current figure is about 8.5 percent of the population.



Getting through the door

Public health experts often worry about the destructive potential of a pandemic in poorer parts of the world like sub-Saharan Africa or South Asia.

These poverty-plagued regions have hospitals that are ill-equipped to stop the spread of infectious diseases, or to adequately care for patients needing breathing assistance, which the most severe cases of COVID-19 require.

By contrast, the US has some of the world's best hospitals and medical staff, but those not lucky enough to have good insurance through their employer, and not poor enough to qualify for state insurance, often opt out of the system entirely.

A routine doctor's visit can run into hundreds of dollars for those without coverage.

"I think that it's possible if this has the sustained spread, that might highlight some of those health care disparities that we already know about and are trying to work on, but haven't figured out a way to solve," said Brian Garibaldi, the medical director of Johns Hopkins Hospital's biocontainment unit.

That's not to say uninsured people have no recourse if they fall seriously ill.

US law requires that people who are truly sick get the care they need, regardless of ability to pay.

Presentee-ism

One of the key messages the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has put out about the coronavirus is to stay home if you have mild respiratory symptoms, except to go to the doctor once you have called in and if they think you need to.

"But a lot of people, depending on their jobs, their position and their privilege, are not able to do that," said Brown.

The US is alone among advanced countries in not offering any federally mandated paid sick leave.

Though private companies offer an average of eight days per year, only 30 percent of the lowest paid workers are  able to earn sick days, according to the Economic Policy Institute.

For many of these people, missing even a day's work can make a painful financial dent.

An October 2019 nationwide survey of 2,800 workers by the accounting firm Robert Half found that 57 percent sometimes go to work while sick and 33 percent always go when sick.

Vaccine cost fears

As the global death toll from the virus approaches 3,000 and the US braces for a wider outbreak, the race is on to develop vaccines and treatments.

Current timeline estimates for the leading vaccine candidate are 12-18 months, but will it be affordable for all? That question was put to Health Secretary Alex Azar in Congress last week.

His response: "We would want to ensure that we work to make it affordable, but we can't control that price because we need the private sector to invest."

Ed Silverman, a columnist for industry news site Pharmalot, panned the comment  as "outrageous."

"No one said profits are verboten," he wrote. "But should we let some Americans who may contract the coronavirus die because the price is out of reach?"

Agence France-Presse

Second coronavirus death sparks fears, lockdown in Italian towns

CODOGNO, Italy — Streets were deserted and residents warned to keep out of an emergency room on Saturday in an Italian town placed under lockdown as a second death from coronavirus sparked fears throughout the region. 

"No entry" read the sign on the emergency room in the small town of Codogno with a population of 15,000 where three people have already tested positive for the virus, including one 38-year old man now on life support.

On Saturday, Italian news agency ANSA reported a second death from the virus in the Lombardy region, where Codogno is located.

It came one day after the death of a 78-year-old retired bricklayer from the Padua area in the nearby Veneto region, who was the first local person in Europe to die from the coronavirus.

ANSA reported that the new victim was a woman. No further information was immediately available.


Italy's health minister said that the man who died on Friday, Adriano Trevisan, had been admitted to hospital 10 days earlier for an unrelated health issue.

He was one of two people in the Veneto region with the virus, where another confirmed case overnight in a 53-year old man brought that number to three, president of the Veneto region, Luca Zaia told Rai24 news.

In Lombardy, 16 other people were discovered to have caught the virus and the region took immediate measures to isolate affected areas.

It was not immediately clear whether the victim on Saturday was part of that group, or a new case.

In Rome, three people are being treated in isolation for the virus.

 - Closed for business -

At Codogno's centre, only a bakery and a pharmacy were open, while other shops posted signs saying they were closed due to a local ordinance.

At the civic hospital, there was very little movement early  Saturday other than nurses and other workers finishing their night shifts.

Those who have tested positive for the virus in Codogno include the 38-year-old man's wife, who is eight months pregnant, and another man. Three others in the town have tested positive to a first novel coronavirus test and are awaiting their definitive results.

Since December, COVID-19 has killed more than 2,200 people in China, the epidemic's epicentre.

Elsewhere in the world, it has killed over a dozen people and spread across some 27 countries and territories. Last Sunday, an 80-year-old Chinese tourist died from the new coronavirus in France.

In the areas in northern Italy, over 50,000 people have been asked to stay at home while all public activities such as carnival celebrations, church masses and sporting events have been banned for up to a week.

Codogno Mayor Francesco Passerini said locals were "extremely worried" about the spread of the deadly disease.

Agence France-Presse

France announces 1st death in Europe of COVID-19 patient

PARIS — The French health minister has announced the first coronavirus death in Europe.

French Health Minister Agnes Buzyn says Saturday that “I was informed last night of the death of an 80-year-old patient who had been hospitalized … since Jan. 25.”


The patient, a Chinese tourist from the province of Hubei, had a lung infection caused by the coronavirus. He arrived in France on Jan. 16, then was hospitalized on Jan. 25 under strict isolation measures. His condition deteriorated rapidly.

His daughter was also hospitalized, but authorities say she is expected to recover.

source: newsinfo.inquirer.net

Oxford Economics: Wuhan coronavirus seen to cut tourism revenues in Asia, including PH

MANILA, Philippines — The influx of Chinese tourists to the Philippines and other Southeast Asian countries would take a hit from the outbreak of Wuhan coronavirus, but most economies in the region were expected to be ready in offsetting any potential economic impact of the illness, UK-based Oxford Economics said Sunday.

“The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak could potentially be a high-impact but short-lived event, similar to the SARS experience in 2003. As such, we think that the current virus outbreak poses a downside risk to our China growth forecast, particularly in the first quarter and possibly the second quarter should the outbreak be prolonged. But beyond that the impact should begin to fade,” Oxford Economics senior economist Tommy Wu and head of India and Southeast Asia economics Priyanka Kishore said in a Jan. 26 research briefing titled “Wuhan virus raises downside growth risks in short-term.”


Oxford Economics explained that while China’s gross domestic product (GDP) may be impacted especially on the consumption side (such as retail and tourism), and to a lesser extent on investments and industries, the economic effect would be “less severe compared to the SARS episode, at least for now.”

“The faster reaction time by the Chinese authorities this time around, with increased transparency and firm actions taken recently, are certainly helpful in mitigating the impact on public health, confidence and the economy. That is so even though municipal and provincial governments have at times been late, faulty and non-transparent in their response, especially at the early stage of the outbreak. We also expect the government to roll out measures, if needed, to stabilize growth,” Oxford Economics said.

Elsewhere in Asia, the economic impact of the Wuhan coronavirus would be felt by countries hosting many Chinese tourists as they get locked down in the mainland.

“We expect the economies that have a higher share of tourism in GDP and are more reliant on Chinese tourists—Hong Kong, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore and the Philippines—to feel the impact more,” Oxford Economics said.

Citing Tourism Economics and World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) data, Oxford Economics noted that travel and tourism activities accounted for up to 25 percent of the Philippines’ GDP.

“Tourism and related industries, such as food and beverages, recreation, clothing, etc., are prominent drivers of growth for most Southeast Asian economies and Hong Kong. Moreover, Chinese tourists account for a higher share of total tourist arrivals in these economies compared to the SARS outbreak period,” Oxford Economics pointed out.

Asian economies were nonetheless seen to be able to withstand decline in foreign tourism receipts, especially from China. “All these economies have available policy space to buffer domestic demand, if needed,” Oxford Economics said.

As of Sunday, the Philippines remained free from infection of Wuhan coronavirus.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia last week said “there’s always a potential impact” on the economy when diseases such as the Wuhan coronavirus and African swine fever strike.


In a separate Jan. 24 report, London-based Capital Economics said that “if the outbreak continues to spread, one of the main channels through which the region will be affected is through a decline in tourist arrivals from China.”

“The number of Chinese travelling abroad has increased nearly ten-fold since the SARS outbreak in 2003 and spending by Chinese visitors now accounts for sizeable share of some countries’ GDP, most notably Hong Kong, Cambodia, Thailand, and Singapore,” Capital Economics senior Asia economist Gareth Leather said in a report titled “Coronavirus to hit tourism, upside surprise on growth.”

In the case of the Philippines, spending by Chinese visitors in the country was still very low compared to most of its Asean neighbors, at less than 1 percent of GDP, estimates compiled by Capital Economics showed.

“During the SARS outbreak in 2003, Chinese tourist numbers fell by around one-third. If they fell by a similar amount again, it would knock around 1.5-2 percentage points from GDP in the most vulnerable countries. Overall though, lessons from past epidemics show that while the initial hit to the economy can be severe, growth tends to bounce back quickly after the virus is contained,” Capital Economics said.

source: business.inquirer.net